Rivers State’s Political Turmoil: A Path to Resolution?
Nigeria’s oil-rich Rivers State, a critical hub for the nation’s economy, has been embroiled in political chaos since March 2025. However, recent behind-the-scenes diplomacy between President Bola Tinubu and suspended Governor Siminalayi Fubara suggests a potential breakthrough. Here’s what you need to know about the secret talks and their implications for Nigeria’s stability.
The London Meeting: Tinubu and Fubara’s Quiet Diplomacy
According to The Africa Report, President Tinubu and Governor Fubara held a private meeting in London last week. This followed Tinubu’s return from Paris and Fubara’s suspension on March 18, 2025, after explosions rocked two oil pipelines linked to a feud between Fubara and lawmakers loyal to ex-governor Nyesom Wike.
A presidential aide revealed that Fubara, eager to reclaim his position, offered concessions during the talks. “His suspension could be lifted before the six-month deadline,” the source noted. The meeting signals Tinubu’s push to stabilize Rivers State, which contributes significantly to Nigeria’s oil-dependent economy.
Fubara’s Potential Shift to APC: A Game-Changer for 2027?
Key to the negotiations is Fubara’s reported willingness to join the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC). This move would bolster Tinubu’s influence in Rivers State—a traditional opposition stronghold—ahead of the 2027 elections. “If Fubara defects, APC’s chances here skyrocket,” the aide emphasized.
However, the move risks alienating Nyesom Wike, Fubara’s estranged political mentor and current FCT Minister. Wike, excluded from the London talks, opposes reconciliation efforts. Tinubu is expected to mediate between Wike, Fubara, and state lawmakers to address the root causes of the crisis.
Why Did Tinubu Declare a State of Emergency?
With Nigeria relying on oil for 60% of government revenue and 90% of foreign exchange, pipeline attacks in Rivers State threatened national economic security. Tinubu’s declaration of a state of emergency allowed the appointment of ex-naval chief Ibok-Ete Ibas as sole administrator, granting him full gubernatorial powers.
The decision drew sharp criticism. Opposition leaders like Atiku Abubakar labeled it a “power grab,” while legal and civil society groups questioned its constitutionality. Tinubu defended the move as necessary to prevent further instability, despite his past criticism of similar actions by former President Obasanjo.
Implications for Nigeria’s Oil Economy
Rivers State’s instability poses dire risks for Nigeria’s economy. Ongoing clashes between Fubara and Wike’s factions have disrupted oil production, exacerbating the country’s fiscal challenges. A resolution could restore investor confidence and stabilize oil output, which is vital for funding public services and debt obligations.
What’s Next for Rivers State?
1. Lifting Fubara’s Suspension: If negotiations succeed, Fubara could return to office by September 2025.
2. APC’s Expansion: Fubara’s defection would strengthen Tinubu’s party in the Niger Delta.
3. Mediation with Wike: Tinubu faces the delicate task of reconciling Wike and Fubara to prevent further unrest.
Conclusion: A Turning Point for Nigeria?
The Tinubu-Fubara talks mark a critical juncture for Rivers State and Nigeria’s broader political landscape. As backroom deals unfold, the outcome will shape not only the region’s leadership but also the nation’s economic future. Stay tuned for updates on this evolving story.
Page manager
